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Ingredient by ingredient
Each panel averages one ingredient over a box (outlined on the map when selected). The pink line is 2024. Click a panel to map it.
20241991–2020 average ± 1 standard deviationRange, 1991–2023
What the forecasts said
Rain predicted for 25 Sep 00 UTC to 28 Sep 00 UTC, which covers the rain ahead of the storm and Helene itself, by each 00 UTC model run issued from 14 to 25 September. Two forecasting centers: NOAA (GFS, and its 31-member GEFS ensemble) and ECMWF (HRES, and its 51-member ENS ensemble). HRES runs reach 10 days, so it starts on 18 September. What fell comes from NCEP Stage IV, radar estimates adjusted to rain gauges.
GEFS membersGEFS meanGFSECMWF ENS membersENS meanECMWF HRES (dashed)What fell (Stage IV)ERA5 (dotted)